Can the Flying Geese Model Inspire Industrial Transformation in Iraq? Insights from the Development Road Initiative

Abstract

This study explores the applicability of the Flying Geese Paradigm in Iraq, focusing on the Development Road Initiative launched by the government to reposition the country within regional and global value chains. Despite Iraq’s economic and institutional challenges, the study assumes that basic conditions exist for industrial upgrading, provided that infrastructure investment and effective employment policies are implemented. The research is among the first to connect the Flying Geese model—a sequential industrialization theory—with a national project in a post-conflict, oil-dependent economy.

The study adopts a dual framework: a theoretical analysis of the model’s evolution in East Asia, and an empirical assessment using ARDL modeling based on Iraqi data from 2003 to 2023. It examines the relationship between the share of industry in GDP and variables such as infrastructure investment, trade openness, and industrial employment. Results indicate that industrial labor share is the most influential factor in industrial growth, while infrastructure and trade openness lack significant short-term effects.

The paper concludes with three scenarios for Iraq’s industrial future, stressing the importance of institutional coherence, political will, and human capital development to realize the transformative potential of the Development Road.