International Competitiveness, Dutch Disease and Fiscal Policy in Iraq: Evidence from the ARDL Approach

الملخص

This research studies the impact of Dutch disease on competitiveness in Iraq, using the ARDL approach from 2000 to 2021, by analyzing the relationship between exports (as one of the most important indicators of competitiveness) and between oil revenues, government spending, industry, inflation, and agriculture. The long-run ARDL estimates show that Industry, government spending, and agriculture, increase competitiveness, while oil rent and inflation haven't significant effects on competitiveness. In the long run, the term error correction is negative and significant; This confirms a long-term relationship between these studied variables. short-term ARDL estimates demonstrate that in the short term, the causal direction between Industry is not visible., Oil rent, and Inflation. The state's ability to return to equilibrium with an ECM error correction rate of 55% in the short term.